WILL TCS MAINTAIN LEAD OVER IT FELLOW ?

"BUY TCS ABOVE 3340 TARGET 3370/3385 SL 3300"
As the IT services sector looks poised to continue with its trailblazing journey in the March quarter of the financial year 2020-2021 ,We expect The Tata Group crown jewel TCS  to maintain its leadership position in the space in terms of revenue growth and margin expansion. TCS expected to achieve this feat aided by certain large deals such as Post bank and Prudential Financial. Now strong Hopes of a strong quarterly performance were visible in the stock price movement. The scrip jumped 11% for the  IT stocks three months ended March 2021 and has risen nearly 16% on a year-to-date basis.This is against a 5 % rise in Nifty & a gain of 6% in the IT stocduring the March quarter.

Keeping with the past trend, the firm, which is slated to post its Q4 numbers on April 12, is unlikely to give any guidance, although it could call out the current pandemic as a key catalyst for the third wave of outsourcing. It may also express confidence on comfortable double-digit growth and sustained profitability.
We expect TCS to report a 9 % year-on-year growth in revenue for the March quarter, led by the above-mentioned factors. The revenue could rise by 4.9 %  quarter-on-quarter  in dollar terms and 4.5% in constant currency terms.
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CONSUMER STOCKS

In upcoming days we will see very decent volume growth, particularly from the Q4 perspective. Given that we are in a semi lockdown situation, in certain pockets like Britannia, HUL and Marico, the volume growth could be a little better. Overall, though we do not expect a very strict lockdown, this thing really can’t be allowed to go out of hand. But in any case, we have a very positive outlook for companies like Britannia, Tata Consumer and HUL even otherwise. From a one year perspective, these stocks can give a decent amount of upside from current price point.

HIKE IN STEEL STOCKS

This quarter is all about metal and the general Street consensus is that there is going to be a lot of room for a positive surprise. One thing which we have to bear in mind is that in case of metals, for most of the companies, the EBITDA growth will come from higher pricing. The only company which would deliver a very strong double digit volume growth would be JSW Steel. But we think that from a short-term perspective, Tata Steel can give a good amount of positive surprise but from investment perspective, we prefer SAIL, JSPL and JSW Steel because these companies have a larger story in terms of debt repayment and much better upgrades post Q4, the overall environment being better in India.

BHARTI AIRTEL & RELIANCE

In case of Reliance we have already seen a big outperformance and it was one of the best performing stocks from April till December 2020. After that, the stock is consolidating as we are not seeing any incremental growth triggers on the telecom part and a large part of the story in terms of retail and the OTC has been known. So the market is just trying to see some sort of a consolidation till we see fresh triggers in terms of the earnings growth for the next one or two quarters.Unlike Reliance, Bharti has not been able to attract any major global investors and it continues to remain a very slow moving telecom play with no price increase. So after some point people have got a little frustrated with the fact that we are not going to see any meaningful earning growth at least in the near term. So the stock has correspondingly underperformed. But we think that telecom is not a short term or two quarter story. So people who have let us say one or two year kind of timeframe should definitely look at allocating a good amount of money into both Reliance and Bharti because a decent amount of growth will come through in earnings over next two years.
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MARKET DECLINED DUE TO RISE IN CORONA CASES

SELL  HINDALCO BELOW 350 TARGET 348/343 SL 356

Last week, market jumped 2% rejuvenated by the buying interest post-stimulus package announcement in the us. Last week sensex added 1021 points to end at 50029 &nifty rose 360 points, to close at 14867 levels while this week market started on a negative note for the mainly due to sharp surge in covid-19 cases across the country. Despite, stable global cues, the indian indices lost its ground and ended with losses of nearly 1.5% to end at 14638 levels. The sharp surge in covid-19 cases has dented investor sentiments and has increased fear of harsh restrictions which would impact economic activity. The upcoming q4 fy21 earnings season will begin in a week’s time, so investors’ focus will be shifting back to fundamentals. This time investors’ expectations are rife for a strong earnings season led by healthy demand recovery and low base effect. On the earnings front, revenue growth, margins expansion and management commentary will be key things to watch out. Further, the upcoming rbi monetary policy would be actively tracked by investors. We expect the rbi to maintain its dovish stance and leave key rates to be unchanged.
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