WEEKLY PREDICTION FOR STOCK MARKET 19 DEC - 23 DEC 2022

In this week that ended yesterday, the market closed lower for the second week in a row due to mixed data points like continued selling by Foreign Institutional Investors, domestic wholesale inflation at a 21-month low, a decline in inflation in the United States and Britain, and rate hikes by the US Fed, European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England. The Sensex fell 843.86 points,or 1.35%,to 61,337 levels for the week, while the Nifty50 fell 227.6 points, or 1.23%, to 18,269 levels. Reliance Industries suffered the greatest loss in market capitalization among the Sensex, followed by Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, and Infosys. Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, and Larsen & Toubro, on the other hand, increased the majority of their market caps. This week, domestic institutional investors purchased shares worth Rs 3,462.22 crore while FIIs sold shares worth Rs 1,832.91 crore. However, as of December, DIIs have purchased shares worth Rs 10,551.62 crore while FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 7,490.05 crore.

Among areas, the Clever Media record fell 2.2 %, Clever FMCG list shed 1.8 %, Clever Realty 1.7 and Clever Data Advances file was down 1.6 %. The Nifty PSU Bank index, on the other hand, gained 0.8%. The Indian rupee lost more ground this week, ending 59 paise lower at 82.86 per US dollar on December 16 compared to its closing of 82.27 on December 9.
NIFTY SUPPORT :  18137,18133
NIFTY RESISTANCE : 18440,18652

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THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT RELIANCE STOCK

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This year, the shares of Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL), run by Mukesh Ambani, have produced moderate returns. This year, the stock that tops the Sensex and Nifty in terms of market capitalization has gained 9.41%. The weak global market sentiment brought on by rising inflation, the government's windfall tax, falling crude oil prices, and declining Singapore GRM, among other things, have all influenced the direction of the index heavyweight.

Here’s a look at key things to know about the Reliance Industries stock in 2022

Shares of RIL have increased by 7.76% in the past year and 9.41% in 2022. On April 29 of this year, the large-cap stock reached its all-time high of Rs 2,855. In the same session, the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate made history by becoming the first Indian listed company to reach Rs 19 lakh crore in market capitalization.

On March 8 of this year, RIL shares fell to Rs 2,181 from their 52-week low. The stock reached its record high in less than two months. During that time, the rupee increased by a significant 30.90%, or Rs 674.

The beta of RIL stock is 1.06 after one year. This suggests that the stock has high risk and volatility. During corrections, a high-beta stock can decline much more quickly than the index, but it can also rise much faster than the index. For instance, the benchmark Sensex has gained 6.3% in a year and 5.66% in 2022, respectively, compared to RIL stock's one-year returns of 7.76 % & year-to-date returns of 9%.

Since the massive company's 45th annual general meeting (AGM) on September 29 this year, shares of the company have not changed. In the same session, the stock ended at Rs 2,596.80 on the BSE. The scrip was trading at Rs 2,596 during the current session, offering investors the same returns as before the AGM.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the RIL stock is 43.2. A scrip's value above 70 indicates that it is overbought, while a stock's value below 30 indicates that it is oversold. As a result, the RSI rating on the stock is neutral. The stock of the conglomerate has a price to equity ratio of 27.24, which is higher than the PE of 12.64 for the industry. This suggests that the stock is worth too much.

STOCKS MARKET PREDICTION FOR TOMORROW 16 DEC 2022

IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Apollo Hospitals, and 28 other Nifty stocks saw their mutual fund exposure rise in November. Nifty stocks like ONGC, HUL, UltraTech Cement, Nestle India, and Sun Pharma saw increased interest from mutual funds in the previous month. UPL, HDFC Life Insurance, Adani Enterprises, Hindalco, and Adani Ports are examples of index constituents.At the end of November, 92.59 crore shares were held by mutual funds, an 8 % increase. As of November 30, they held Tata Steel shares worth Rs 9,970 crore, up 14 %. A total of 19 mutual funds held a stake in the steelmaker that was less than 2%.IndusInd Bank's MF holdings increased by 3.9% month-over-month in terms of the number of shares held; They held 3.3% more ONGC shares than they did in October. Mutual funds increased their stakes in HUL, UltraTech Cement, Nestle India, and Sun Pharma by 3%, 2.8%, 2.8%, and 2.7%, respectively. In terms of value, the value of MF holdings in IndusInd Bank, ONGC, HUL, UltraTech Cement, and Nestle India increased by 6%, 8%, 8.4%, and 1.8%, respectively. This was in terms of an increase in the number of shares held monthly.

Among stocks where they managed stakes included UPL, HDFC Life coverage and Adani Ventures. Reduced stakes in UPL by 10.2 percent in value and 17.2 % in terms of the number of shares held. Shares held by mutual funds in HDFC Life decreased by 10.2% month-over-month. The value of MF's HDFC Life holdings was Rs 5,250 crore, down 2.1%. MF held 8.4% fewer shares in Adani Enterprises than it did in October, probably to take advantage of the counter's profits. As of November 30, MF held shares of Adani Enterprises worth Rs 6,720 crore, an increase of 7.2% month-over-month.
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YESBANK & UNION BANK STOCK CASH PREDICTION

Maintained its  "sell" recommendation despite raising the target price for YES Bank. Due to the company's solid performance over the past few quarters, we increased our price target for Union Bank to Rs 100 per share. Union Bank highlighted the bank's various initiatives and progress toward improving underwriting standards, focusing on the prompt resolution of stressed assets, expanding credit and deposits, and improving key operational parameters with the goal of delivering superior performance over time.

The bank anticipates that the retail segment and improving trends in the corporate and SME segments will continue to drive loan growth. Margins are likely to remain above 3% in the third and fourth quarters due to the re-pricing, particularly on the MCLR book, and the high mix of floating book. A better outlook on asset quality is also provided by controlled restructuring and a low SMA book. In general, the bank intends to maintain its credit cost guidance of 1.7% for FY23 and a RoA of 1% by FY25. By FY24, we anticipate that loans will increase by 12% to 13% in the fiscal years 23-24, with ROA and ROE increasing by 0.8% and 13.9%, respectively. Based on 0.9 time Sep’24E adjusted book value, we maintain our BUY rating with a target price of Rs 100.
It reiterated its negative outlook and expressed surprise at the trading price of YES Bank. Not a new development, but rather the closing or near-closing of previously announced transactions—the sale of NPLs to the ARC and capital infusion—are the focus of the most recent news flow. Even though these are important milestones to reach, these premium multiples might be justified if we saw more than we currently do. It has maintained its Sell rating on YES Bank and increased the stock's fair value from Rs14 to Rs16. At the moment, Yes Bank trades at a discount of 15% to Axis Bank and a premium of 10% to IndusInd Bank. We believe that this cannot be sustained. It stated that the bank must further enhance its liability franchise due to the high cost of funds differential with frontline banks. This usually requires much more time and significant investments. It is focusing its loan book on markets where it has no real advantage. As a result, we should anticipate lower returns from YES Bank than from the front line banks.
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NOVEMBER SAW A 28% RISE IN PASSENGER VEHICLE

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According to data released yesterday by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, India's passenger vehicle wholesales experienced a growth of 28% year-over-year in November.The strong demand for cars and utility vehicles is to blame for the rise. Last month, companies shipped 2,76,231 passenger vehicles to dealers, up from 2,15,626 vehicles in November 2021. Utility vehicle wholesales increased 32% to 1,38,780 vehicles, up from 1,05,091 vehicles a year earlier."Positive consumer and business sentiments have reflected in the better sales in the month of November 2022, compared to the previous year." Similarly, passenger car dispatches increased by 29% to 1,30,142 units from 1,00,906 units in November 2021. Van sales, on the other hand, decreased to 7,309 units from 9,629 units in November 2021. He added that seasonality and softness in key export markets are to blame for a sequential decline in wholesale sales over the course of October 2022. Rajesh Menon, Director General of SIAM, went on to say that passenger vehicle sales have reached their highest level ever since November of 2022-23.
However, dispatches of two-wheelers are still below the level of 2016-17, and dispatches of three-wheelers are still below the level of 2010-11. Customers continue to be concerned about rising interest rates and premiums for long-term insurance. Last month, there were 12,36,190 wholesale two-wheelers sold, up 16% from 10,61,493 the previous year. Last month, there were 7,88,893 motorcycles sold, up from 6,99,949 in November of last year. In a similar vein, scooter wholesales increased from 3,18,986 units in November 2021 to 4,12,832 units in November 2022. The total dispatches of three-wheelers increased to 45,664 units from 22,551 units a year earlier.

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NIFTY RETURNS IN 2023 EXPECTED TO BE MUTED?

The target for the Nifty in 2023 is 19,500, implying modest but positive returns. The debate over two scenarios—a prolonged global revival or a soft landing—leads the foreign brokerage to anticipate that the 50-pack index will largely remain within a range of 17,000 to 20,000 levels throughout the course of the year. India may perform better than developed markets, but it may perform worse than emerging markets. Better returns could be achieved by buying dips and being strategic in swing sectors. This fall may be led by externally facing IT, materials, energy, and select automobiles, which account for 21% of Nifty sales, as well as consumer discretionary with high valuations; whereas domestic defensives and cyclicals may perform better. Nifty may trade around the 17,000 level overall. Our analysis indicates that Indian economic growth and markets experience fewer declines and faster recovery during global recessions, so we recommend purchasing these dips. It stated that, despite reducing Nifty FY24/25 earnings growth to 8%/12%, Nifty could trade at 20,000 in such a scenario. India's position among FIIs is at an all-time low in this scenario.

Nifty will finish 2023 at 19,500 following market volatility, implying modest but positive returns. Our views point to a very likely recession in the United States, Europe, and the UK, risks skewed toward a longer rate expansion, additional Fed tightening, a later but deeper recession, persistent inflation, and a $100 a barrel crude average and spike to $110 in H2, we assume bearish/Scenario 1 earnings. Domestic cyclicals, industrials, cement, global revival play metals, and defensive staples/utilities make up the majority of our portfolio's volatility. We underweight IT, consumer discretionary, automobiles, telecom, pharmaceuticals, and Northwest energy.
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