Friday, January 28, 2022

BUDGET UNLIKELY TO BOOST SENSEX

According to the short-term historical performance of the stock market before and after budgets in 2010 to 2020, volatility has significantly decreased. Based on the stock market's performance over the last five years, it is clear that the Budget outcome has not affected it. The event has been neutral, but there is volatility around elections, especially general elections.

In general, volatility is also observable during other major events such as quarterly results, and global factors. The five state elections this year, including those in UP and Punjab, are presumed to be a precursor to the national elections two years later. Another factor affecting the market is hawkish monetary policy, high inflation, and Q3 results. Nowadays, the real expectations from the Budget are low, rather high only on paper. And it is further low when key states or national elections are scheduled. Markets are now expected to follow the Q3 results and global market trends. It's been a good start to the earnings season, thanks in part to the evergreen IT sector. In its current form, the Budget is expected to be positive for the economy, but it is unlikely to provide a boost and momentum to the market.
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