Friday, September 9, 2022

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK 12 SEP 22 -16 SEP 22

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US markets have been in bearish mode for the past few weeks and on Wednesday night they rebounded sharply from their overbought condition. Being the outperforming market of late, we were sentimentally looking for a little nudge and a sharp global recovery provided much-needed impetus to start the session with a decent bounce. In fact, a small profit booking around the middle of the session was absorbed with ease. Finally, Nifty ended the weekly decline around the 17800 level by adding one percent to the Bulls Kitty.
This is exactly what we alluded to in our previous comment, that the 17700 fight will end for Nifty when we get support from the global peers. We finally managed to close at the 3-week high, which was the most recent period of consolidation. It is important that this step is supported by the banking area, which has reached its highest level in the current calendar year. This participation is certainly considered a healthy sign for our market. Going forward, we expect Nifty to continue this north move towards 17,900, 18,000 and then past the 18,000 level. On the upside, if there is no global divergence, 17700 17600 should now act as immediate support. Traders are advised to remain bullish and use dips to add new longs.
FIIs were net buyers in the spot market segment of Rs. 2913 crores. At the same time, they bought Rs. 853 crores worth of index futures with a surge in open interest indicating a long formation. Looking at the general F&O data, we observed a long formation in both indices. On the options front, position buildup is seen on put strikes at 17700-17800, suggesting a gradual shift in base. On the contrary, there is a significant OI concentration seen at 17800-18000 call strikes, indicating nearby resistance. Once we surpassed this, we would see some brief cover moves in these strikes.

Along with banking, the other heavyweight, IT also contributed to yesterday's rally, which has been lagging for quite some time. The cement also continued on its dream run as we watched some smaller names catch up with the bigger name. One can continue to focus on such thematic movers and also the broader market remains the real flavor.

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