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It is very difficult to predict when the market will
experience a trend reversal. The reality is that even historically we have to
wait for the market to digest that the rate hike cycle is over. When the market
comes to this realization, things will change.Even on Tuesday, the Fed
chair was at a WSJ seminar and generally spoke in a very aggressive tone. He
mentioned that inflation is his primary goal. He doesn't have to worry about
other things now. This sends a
very clear signal that they will do everything they can to contain inflation.
However, I have to say that and I have to say here that these things are
sending a very strong signal to the market and there will likely be more and
more interest there. It is very difficult to predict these geopolitical
developments and if there is a truce, we may be surprised to find that things
have suddenly turned around and buoyancy has returned to the market. Risk
appetite will return to markets and central banks around the world will not be
under the intense pressure they are facing today to contain inflation as
inflation slowly moderates as commodity prices fall.
Wednesday, May 25, 2022
HOW LONG DO YOU EXPECT THE MARKETS TO BE LEAN? IS THERE NO CLARITY YET?
INTRADAY STOCK FUTURE TIPS FOR 25 MAY 2022
BUY UPL 2 LOTS ABOVE 782 TG 786/790 SL 777
Tuesday, May 24, 2022
STOCK MARKET TRADING PREDICTION FOR TOMORROW 25 MAY 2022
Today’s stock market ended lower in
choppy trade. Equities have been volatile globally as investors assess the
outlook for monetary policy, inflation and the impact of China’s strict covid
policies. Most Asian shares declined on Tuesday, as a drop in U.S. stock
futures stoked fears about a global economic slowdown.
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CANFINHOME 450 SHARES SL TRIGGERED @ 467
BRIGADE CALL 1st TARGET ACHIEVED @ 455.50 BUYING CALL GIVEN FROM 449.50 BOOKED PROFIT OF 1350
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EQUITY CASH TRADING TIPS FOR 24 MAY 2022
BUY CANFINHOME 450 SHARES ABOVE 474 TG 480/486 SL 467
BUY BRIGADE 450 SHARES ABOVE 449.50 TG 455.50/461.50 SL 442.50
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Monday, May 23, 2022
STOCK MARKET PREDICTION FOR TOMORROW 24 MAY 2022
Today market spent most of the session in the green but
ended with minor losses on sell off. Sensex gave up all intraday gains to close
37 points or 0.07% lower at 54,288 while nifty fell 51 points or 0.32% to
settle at 16,214 & banknifty closed 0.08% down. Maruti Suzuki India was the
top performer in Sensex, up 4%, followed by M&M, HUL and Larsen &
Toubro. Tata Steel slipped 12.24% on Monday, while Ultratech Cement slipped 3%
and ITC slipped 2.2%.
Global markets were and are volatile in the month of May 22. The Indian markets are also on a similar path, however, the drawdown percentage in the Indian markets is not as high as in the global counterparts. Nifty has corrected -6.3% year-to-date with continued volatility in the month of May. Some of the main reasons for this continued volatility are concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, decades of high inflation, supply chain issues, rising input costs leading to a squeeze on margins, and demand compression. We expect India's medium-term inflation to range between 4.5% and 5.5%. Historically, the Reserve Bank of India has aimed to keep the real repo rate at 100-150 basis points. Given this, we expect the cycle repo rate to peak around 6-6.5%, accordingly we expect the RBI to hike the repo rate another 200 basis points over the next 24 months. The interest rate hike also increases the risk-free interest rate and thus the discount rate for future earnings. These in turn reduce the valuation of companies. Taken together, the short-term effects of a rate hike can hurt corporate earnings and the stock market. Interest rate changes should not affect the long-term prospects of an investor with a long time horizon and an appropriate mix of equity and debt. Being consistent in your asset allocation strategy and diversification can help protect your entire investment portfolio against the effects of interest rate changes over the long term.
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